Paskhalis, Tom, Bryn Rosenfeld and Katerina Tertytchnaya. 2022. "Independent Media under Pressure: Evidence from Russia." Post-Soviet Affairs 38(3): 155-174. [Download Paper]
Pop-Eleches, Grigore, Graeme Robertson and Bryn Rosenfeld. 2022. "Protest Participation and Attitude Change: Evidence from Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution." The Journal of Politics 84(2): 625-638. [Abstract] [Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2021. "State Dependency and the Limits of Middle Class Support for Democracy." Comparative Political Studies 54(3-4): 411-444. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Chou, Winston, Kosuke Imai, and Bryn Rosenfeld. 2020. “Sensitive Survey Questions with Auxiliary Information.” Sociological Methods & Research 49(2): 418-454. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2018. “The Popularity Costs of Economic Crisis Under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia.” American Journal of Political Science 62(2): 382-397. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2017. “Reevaluating the Middle Class Protest Paradigm: A Case-Control Study of Democratic Protest Coalitions in Russia.” American Political Science Review 111(4): 637-652. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
A large literature expects rising middle classes to promote democracy. However, few studies provide direct evidence on this group in nondemocratic settings. This article focuses on politically important internal differentiation within the middle classes, arguing that middle class growth in state-dependent sectors weakens potential coalitions in support of democratization. I test this argument using surveys conducted at mass demonstrations in Russia and detailed population data. I also present a new approach to studying protest based on case-control methods from epidemiology. The results reveal that state sector professionals were significantly less likely to mobilize against electoral fraud, even after controlling for ideology. If this group had participated at the same rate as middle class professionals from the private sector, I estimate that another 90,000 protesters would have taken to the streets. I trace these patterns of participation to the interaction of individual resources and selective incentives. These findings have implications for authoritarian stability and democratic transitions.