Published Articles
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2022. "Survey Research in Russia: In the Shadow of War." Post-Soviet Affairs 39(1-2): 38-48. [Abstract] [Download Paper]
Paskhalis, Tom, Bryn Rosenfeld and Katerina Tertytchnaya. 2022. "Independent Media under Pressure: Evidence from Russia." Post-Soviet Affairs 38(3): 155-174. [Download Paper]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2022. "Belarusian Public Opinion and the 2020 Uprising." Post-Soviet Affairs, 38(1-2): 150-154. [Abstract][Download Paper]
Pop-Eleches, Grigore, Graeme Robertson and Bryn Rosenfeld. 2022. "Protest Participation and Attitude Change: Evidence from Ukraine's Euromaidan Revolution." The Journal of Politics 84(2): 625-638. [Abstract] [Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2021. "State Dependency and the Limits of Middle Class Support for Democracy." Comparative Political Studies 54(3-4): 411-444. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Chou, Winston, Kosuke Imai, and Bryn Rosenfeld. 2020. “Sensitive Survey Questions with Auxiliary Information.” Sociological Methods & Research 49(2): 418-454. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2018. “The Popularity Costs of Economic Crisis Under Electoral Authoritarianism: Evidence from Russia.” American Journal of Political Science 62(2): 382-397. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn. 2017. “Reevaluating the Middle Class Protest Paradigm: A Case-Control Study of Democratic Protest Coalitions in Russia.” American Political Science Review 111(4): 637-652. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Rosenfeld, Bryn, Kosuke Imai, and Jacob N. Shapiro. 2016. “An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions.” American Journal of Political Science 60(3): 783–802. [Abstract][Download Paper][Replication Archive]
Working Papers
Information Politics and Propaganda in Authoritarian Societies (with Jeremy Wallace; Conditionally accepted at the Annual Review of Political Science)
Anxiety and Information Seeking in an Autocracy: Lessons from the COVID Pandemic in Russia (with Grigo Pop-Eleches and Graeme Robertson, Under Review) [Abstract][Download Paper]
Repression, Emotions and Legitimacy: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Russia (with Grigo Pop-Eleches, Graeme Robertson and Samuel Greene)
Polarization and Support for Undemocratic Behavior: The Case of Russia (with Yunus Orhan, John Reuter, and David Szakonyi) [Abstract][Download Paper]
Public Sector Independence and Democratic Backsliding (with Frances Cayton, Under Review)
Identity Change in Times of Crisis: How Russian Aggression Has Shaped Ukrainian Identity from Donbas to the Full-Scale Invasion (with Grigo Pop-Eleches and Graeme Robertson)
Studies of individual protest participation confront a variety of inferential challenges. Representative surveys capture few protest participants, are biased by respondent recall, and provide only post-hoc measures of other covariates. Surveys of protesters offer a larger sample size, minimize problems of recall, and effectively verify participation. However, they have limited utility for understanding the causes of protest participation, because focusing on protesters introduces selection on the dependent variable. In this paper I show how a variant of the standard case-control design, used in individual-level rare events studies in epidemiology but ignored to date in political science, enables researchers to estimate the probability of protest as a function of individual-level characteristics. In this approach, researchers combine two distinct samples---one where the outcome is measured along with relevant covariates and the other where relevant covariates are measured but the outcome is not. After describing the statistical setup for this design, I use simulation to show that a Bayesian implementation recovers unbiased estimates. I then demonstrate its value through an application to Ukraine's EuroMaidan protests.